Research

The paper came first. The company came second.

It Goes Forward exists because a peer-reviewed paper proved peer-to-peer return logistics works. Our co-founder Carl van Heijst co-authored that paper at VU Amsterdam and Erasmus University Rotterdam before the company existed. This page covers the research behind the product.

All figures cited across this website are drawn from peer-reviewed publications or official EU agency reports. We do not use unverified industry estimates.

In 2021, Carl began the research at JADS/TU Eindhoven/Tilburg University, working with Dr. Sena Ayse Eruguz (VU Amsterdam) and Dr. Wilco van den Heuvel (Erasmus University Rotterdam). The question was specific: could a formal mathematical model prove that peer-to-peer return forwarding outperforms the conventional warehouse roundtrip, financially and environmentally? The result (a Markov Decision Process formalisation, validated against three years of real e-commerce return data) was accepted by Omega in 2024. It showed up to 44% warehouse return reduction without compromising retailer margins. That is the paper. It Goes Forward B.V. was founded to turn it into a production system.

This is the opposite of how most e-commerce SaaS products get built. Most vendors start with a product hypothesis and look for validation. We started with validation and built the product.

The paper we build on

The matching algorithm at the core of Forwarding was developed in collaboration with Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam and Erasmus University Rotterdam, and published in Omega, one of the world's leading operations research journals (Elsevier). The research used real return data from live fashion clients to demonstrate that peer-to-peer return forwarding reduces warehouse returns by up to 44%.

Co-authored by It Goes Forward co-founder Carl van Heijst with Dr. Sena Ayse Eruguz (VU Amsterdam) and Dr. Wilco van den Heuvel (Erasmus University Rotterdam). The paper preceded the company by two years.

OmegaVol. 128Elsevier2024

Peer-to-peer return forwarding in fashion e-commerce

Eruguz, Van Heijst et al.Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, Erasmus University Rotterdam

Key findings

  • Forwarding reduces warehouse returns by up to 44%
  • The algorithm uses Markov Decision Processes and Approximate Dynamic Programming to optimise match timing and discount level
  • Peer-to-peer return forwarding is financially beneficial for the retailer from the very first match
Read full paper

The problem, documented by independent researchers

Two independent bodies of research (one from a consortium of European universities, one from the European Environment Agency) document the scale of what Forwarding addresses. We did not commission this research. We cite it because it is accurate.

See the industry-wide context →

Our research Independent academic research Official agency report
Resources, Conservation & RecyclingVol. 210Elsevier2024

The convenience economy: Product flows and GHG emissions of returned apparel in the EU

Roichman, Sprecher, Blass, Meshulam & MakovBen-Gurion University of the Negev, TU Delft, Tel Aviv University

630,000+ returned apparel items across the EU (2021)

Key findings

  • 22%–44% of returned apparel never reaches another consumer under conventional management practices
  • Embodied GHG emissions of discarded returns can be 2–16x higher than all post-return logistics emissions combined
  • The environmental impact of e-commerce is systematically underestimated when returns are excluded from lifecycle calculations
Read full paper
Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation ReviewVol. 194Elsevier2024

The billion-pound question in fashion E-commerce: Investigating the anatomy of returns

Marriott, Bektaş, Leung & LyonsUniversity of Liverpool, University of Southampton

Real-world data from the UK's second-largest pure-play fashion retailer

Key findings

  • Fashion returns cost the UK industry an estimated £7 billion in 2022 alone
  • Approximately 23 million returned apparel items were discarded in the UK in 2022, contributing 750,000 tonnes of CO₂ emissions
  • Bracketing (ordering multiple sizes intending to return most) is a major structural driver of high return rates in fashion
Read full paper
Cleaner Logistics and Supply ChainElsevier2025

Hidden footprints in reverse logistics: The environmental impact of apparel returns and carbon emission assessment

Long & Liu

Proprietary logistics data from two major U.S. apparel retailers (2019–2021)

Key findings

  • Transportation accounts for over 90% of the total carbon footprint of apparel returns
  • For a retailer with a centralized return system, returns traveling over 1,000 miles generated 29,143 tonnes of CO₂ in 2021: 91% of its total return-related transport emissions
  • Logistical network design is a critical determinant of the environmental impact of returns. Where you process returns matters as much as how
Read full paper
2024

The destruction of returned and unsold textiles in Europe's circular economy

Duhoux, Lingás & MortensenEuropean Environment Agency

Key findings

  • 1 in 3 garments bought online and returned ends up destroyed, not resold
  • The destruction of returned clothing is routine, not exceptional
  • Current returns management practices are incompatible with circular economy goals
Read full paper

Key numbers at a glance

44%

Reduction in warehouse returns

Eruguz, Van Heijst et al., Omega 128, Elsevier, 2024

22–44%

Of returned EU apparel never reaches another consumer

Roichman et al., Resources Conservation & Recycling 210, Elsevier, 2024

2–16×

Higher embodied emissions vs. post-return logistics for discarded items

Roichman et al., 2024

1 in 3

Returned garments bought online ends up destroyed

European Environment Agency, 2024

630k+

Returned EU apparel items in the research dataset

Roichman et al., 2024

310g

CO₂ saved per Forwarded return in live client data

It Goes Forward live data, 2025

£7bn

Cost of fashion returns to the UK industry in 2022 alone

Marriott et al., Transportation Research Part E, Elsevier, 2024

>90%

Of the carbon footprint of apparel returns comes from transportation alone

Long & Liu, Cleaner Logistics and Supply Chain, Elsevier, 2025

Wondering how these numbers compare to the alternatives? View the full comparison →

All numbers on this page are also published on our open metrics page.

Full references

Eruguz, A.S., Van Heijst, C. et al. (2024). Peer-to-peer return forwarding in fashion e-commerce. Omega, 128. Elsevier. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.omega.2024.103127

Roichman, R., Sprecher, B., Blass, V., Meshulam, T. & Makov, T. (2024). The convenience economy: Product flows and GHG emissions of returned apparel in the EU. Resources, Conservation & Recycling, 210, 107811. Elsevier. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.resconrec.2024.107811

Marriott, J., Bektaş, T., Leung, E.K.H. & Lyons, A. (2024). The billion-pound question in fashion E-commerce: Investigating the anatomy of returns. Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, 194. Elsevier. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tre.2024.103904

Long, J. & Liu, J. (2025). Hidden footprints in reverse logistics: The environmental impact of apparel returns and carbon emission assessment. Cleaner Logistics and Supply Chain. Elsevier. https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2666188825009219

Duhoux, T., Lingás, D. & Mortensen, L.F. (2024). The destruction of returned and unsold textiles in Europe's circular economy. European Environment Agency. https://www.eea.europa.eu/publications/the-destruction-of-returned-and

Open infrastructure

From research to open standard

The same thinking behind our peer-reviewed algorithm drives OpenReturn, an open protocol for the e-commerce return lifecycle we initiated so any platform, portal, or AI agent can build on a shared standard. Apache 2.0.

Learn about OpenReturn →

Ready to put the research into practice?

Forwarding is live with clients today. Book a call to see the results for your webshop.